Threat To India Or Economic Need Of China

menace To India Or Economic Need Of chinawargonI get to etern in ally thought that it is essential, even essential, that these devil countries of Asia, India and chinaw ar, should have fri land uply and, as faraway as possible co-operative transaction. It would be a tragedy, not wholly for India, and peradventure for chinawargon, but for Asia and the whole mankind, if they develop some kind of permanent abhorrence1 Jawahar Lal NehruIndia and mainland chinaw ar have laid the ghost of the 1962 war to rest, and have morose their faces to the future. Prem Shankar JhaINTRODUCTIONFor more than 60 years, Pakistan and India and have been arguing and periodically advance to blows oer one of the most beautiful places in the world i.e. Pakistan represent-aside(p) Kashmir (POK). India, Pakistan and china be in possession of various recrudesces of Jammu Kashmir. chinaware-Pakistan traffic have eer been a matter of c erstrn for India, however imputable to the increase s r estoration of China in POK the matter has worsened further. With front end of an estimated 11,000 soldiers of the Peoples Liberation Army in POK, one can confidently carry ab pop the stimulateing foot-prints of China in POK2. This prompted views among m either Indian armament and political leaders and journalists that Islamabad is handing oer the de-facto bidding of the strategical Gilgit-Baltistan locality of POK to China. Further it is believed that as the years proceed, Pakistan will emerge as an heavy instrument of Chinas force projection into southbound Asia.3With this as background, it is imperative to examine and make Chinas interests and dodge in POK as these organic evolutions hold large significance for Indias bail interests.INDIA CHINA RELATIONSIndia and China are two of the oldest civilizations of the world and in spite of the present economic, political and forces environment and compulsions, these two countries have a long history of friendly dealing. Ho wever, since 1913-14 Shimla Conference, the Sino-Indian b nightspot as part of the issue of Tibets status has been a matter of dispute in relations among the two countries and has resulted in array conflicts. Presently the renewed tensions between the two countries have been dominating diplomacy with issues like Chinas refusal of visa to a top Indian Army General and aggressive Chinese intrusions crossways the LAC.PakistanChinas strategic equation with Pakistan is another issue which is a hindrance to any meaningful make betterment in Indias relations with China. China has been the biggest supplier of military hardware to Pakistan, some of which is made available to Kashmiri militants. The increasing involvement and presence of Chinese soldiers in POK has raised c erstwhilerns in India.EconomicA strategic partnership was announced by China and India in 2005 and two countries have in recent years successfully attempted to light diplomatic and economic ties and consequently, the two countries relations have perplex juxtaposed. Presently, China is Indias largest trading partner and has recently changed its stance on Indias bid shadow at UNSC. This is viewed as beginning of a maturity period in Sino-Indian relations.CHINAS ECONOMIC GROWTHIn 1949, Chinas economic system changed to a communistic system and as Chinas contribution in world craftsmanship has braggart(a) its imembrasureance to the international providence has besides increased. China is the worlds second largest economy after the United States by purchasing power parity and is the worlds fastest-growing economy. poor Regional incrementDeng Xiaoping, orchestrated Chinas reform and opening-up 30 years ago, once said that some areas must get rich before others.4This was referable to the countrys massive outperform, the economic exploitation could not happen all at once across China. Planning and implementation of such an economy would take years, even decades and some areas would inevitab ly be developed before others and thus coastal mannerions of China were the best place to place to start, due to the rude(a) advantage of access to Asian and overseas markets via the Pacific Ocean and second China Sea.5The two areas which benefited most from this economic dodging of China were the Yangtze River Delta region in the East and Pearl River Delta region in the South.6West China the New Economic StoryChinas unequal trans wayation system, combined with differences in the availability of resources (natural and human) and industrial infrastructure has resulted in large variations in the regional economies of China. Although Chinas coastal regions continue to develop, the initial boom has already slowed.7Furthermore, inappropriate investors are beginning to grow weary of the increasing costs of doing business in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen.8Therefore, now both domestic and international businesses are looking towards the interior of the country, where overhead co sts are lower.Chinas Western region will emerge as the most interesting economic development story of the coming decade. This Western region comprises of 28% of Chinas population and 70% of its landmass and presently it besides accounts for 17% of the countrys gross domestic product, but surely this is set to change for the better.9In 2001, the Chinese government implemented its Western Development Strategy excessively known as the Go West policy. The conception called for large infrastructure development in urban and rural areas. The master(prenominal) components of the strategy take ond the development of infrastructure (transport, hydropower plants, force and telecommunications), enticement of foreign enthronization, increased efforts on ecological protection (such as reforestation), retention of gift flowing to richer provinces and promotion of education.The Western Development Bureau affiliated to the state, had released a list of 10 major projects in 2008, with a comb ined work out of 436 one thousand thousand Yuan which included projects like, new railway lines connecting Guiyang and Guangzhou, Lanzhou and Chongqing, Kashgar and Hotan in Xinjiang highways between Wanyuan and Dazhou in Sichuan Province, Shuikou and Duyun in Guizhou Province and airport expansion projects in Chengdu, Chongqing and Xian.10They alike include twist of hydropower stations, coal mines, natural gas and pet typeum transmission lines and also public utilities projects in the western region.By the end of 2007, China had started 92 key construction projects in Western region, with a total investment of more than 1.3 trillion Yuan. The Big Western Line, also known as the South-North water transfer project, is another project being planned to be at a lower placetaken for diverting water from six rivers in Southwestern China to the ironic areas of Northern China through a system of tunnels, reservoirs and rivers.A gamy growth is already in place in the West, reaching 1 1.9% in the last year. Over the past 10 years, the railway efficiency has increased by 160%, street capacity by 280% and the energy capacity by 550%.11Fixed investment of West was 3,600 billion Yuan and per capita sodding(a) domestic product rose to 1,933 dollars per year in 2008, which is just 41.9% compared to the per capita GDP of East. In early July 2010, China announced fresh investments to the tune of nose candy billion dollars for 23 infrastructure projects to labour rapid and healthy development of western areas.12CHINAS ECONOMIC SECURITYChinas spectacular economic growth is generally responsible for its rising energy demands. While energy production in China sharply increased since 1980, consumption exceeded production by the end of the 1990s and the gap between consumption and production is continuing. Chinas natural gas supply is even more limited than vegetable oil. The IEA 2006, forecasts that Chinas oil import will increase five folds by 2030 from slightly less than 2 MMBD in 2002 to 10 MMBD, when imports will account for 80% of Chinas total oil needs. Moreover, as in the rest of Asia, China will become heavily hooked on the Persian gulf (70% of oil by 2015) for future supplies and its oil will increasingly have to transit a series of undefendable maritime choke points.13The constant and safe importation of oil has become a crucial issue in Chinas energy sector.SINO- PAK ECONOMIC nexusGwadar PortPakistan inaugurated its third deep sea port at Gwadar in 2005 and it became operational in 2008. Work for phase II, at estimated cost of US $ 932 million is in progress for building nine additional berths (including two oil terminals with capacity of 2, 00,000 DWT ships). Other then the economic and military advantages to Pakistan it is important to examine Chinas role and strategic interest in this project.It is widely claimed that at that place is Chinese interest in reaching the blue waters of Arabian Sea.14This is considered to be a stra tegic move by Chinese as they funded US $ 198 million (out of the total Phase I cost of US $ 248 million) and also provided 450 engineers onsite. Towards success of Chinas Go West policy, Gwadar provides access to a port at just 1500 km as compared to the Eastern ports at 3000 km for the products produced in Western China.Gwadar is the ideal transit corridor for China to import oil and gas from Iran and the Persian Gulf. It offers an alternative passageway which is safer and cheaper as compared to the Strait of Malacca, where China faces problems of piracy and is under US sphere of influence. In Oct 2010, Pakistan government also decided to build a connecting gas pipeline from Gwadar to Xinjiang, China.15Official sources indorse that an understanding has already developed at highest levels between Pakistan and China that the Gwadar port is to be taken from the Port of Singapore Authority (prostate specific antigen) and handed over to the Chinese. The port should have gone to the C hinese, who built it largely from their own investment, in the first place, says Baloch nationalist Rauf Khan Sasoli, who accuses former electric chair Pervez Musharraf of giving it to the PSA to please his American masters.16This will result in not only transfer of power at the Gwadar port but will also allow Chinese to build Gwadar as tax-free industrial center, including oil and gas refineries and a network of roads and railways from Gwadar to China through the ancient silk route. An ambitious deal to build railways along the Khunjrab pass has already been sign-language(a) between Pakistan.17There is another thought to this project where Gwadar is considered as the nautical base for the Chinese as part of its String of Pearls strategy and providing defending team to its oil movement as part of energy security. However, China had always denied that Gwadar will be used by Chinese military.Pakistan occupied KashmirThe geopolitics amongst China, Pakistan and India has been under t he influence of development in POK. The building of the Karakorum Highway proved to be a turning point and was instrumental in strengthening the Sino-Pakistan strategic relations. The Karakorum highway was constructed by Chinese engineers and was completed in 1986. It connects Chinas region of Xinjiang with Gilgit-Baltistan. China and Pakistan had signed a deal in 2006 to widen the Karakoram highway by almost 20 meters wherein China had promised US$ 350 million for the project and once the project is completed, the transport capacity of the strategically significant region will increase significantly which will facilitate Chinas free access to the oil-rich Gulf through the Pakistani port ofGwadar.18Thus, it may be visualized that the Gwadar port will be an integral part of Chinas Foreign Trade route in future.In return for Chinese assistance in the building the highway, Pakistan ceded the Trans-Karakorum Tract to China.19Since then, it has been a constant source of supply of arms, a mmunition and atomic material to Pakistan from China and other countries like North Korea. Apart from this, goods manufacture in China have crept into Pakistan on a massive scale due to this highway.The Sino-Pak collaboration in hydro-power projects in the POK region including controversial Diamer Bhasha occlude on the Indus River is also a matter of concern for India. During Zardaris visit to China in 2009, the two sides signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on construction of a hydro-power station at Bunji, in the Astore district of POK, with the promise to construct the hydro power project (7000 MW) on build, operate and transfer basis, which performer that all the investment ($ 6-7 billion) will be made by Chinese entrepreneurs.20Further, in that respect were agreements for cooperation in fisheries, agriculture, education, dams and investment.China has contributed substantially to the rehabilitation and rebuilding projects in POK after the devastating earthquake of Oct 2005. These investments have helped China strengthen its control over POK. China has also encashed on the deprivation and alienation of concourse in POK both at political and social level. The Karakorum highway has helped in providing the necessary support during the rebuilding and trading opportunities for people of POK.It has been reported that of an estimated 7,000 to 11,000 soldiers of the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army are in POK. Many of the PLA soldiers entering Gilgit-Baltistan are expected to work on the railroad and some are extending the Karakoram Highway, others are working on dams, expressways and other projects.In a way, these developments in POK brings out that, since Pakistan Army is unable to handle multiple conflicts, thus it apparently gave the Chinese army de facto control over Gilgit and Baltistan regions. For China, it is a win-win situation, as it stands to gain unbound road and rail access to the Middle East through Pakistan.21The social function of kara korum highway is shown below for better appricaition of the situation and its impoartance for Western Chinas economic growth.Karakoram Highway MapKarakorum HighwayAN ALTERNATE VIEW TO INDO-CHINA RELATIONSChina has eventually moved away from Deng Xiaopings principle of hide your strength, bide your time so as to adopt a more proactive role in international affairs. The transformation that China is currently undergoing is clearly visible. Its changes in the socio-political and legal conditions confirm that the regime has changed away from the label of authoritarianism. The course of making decisions and strategy has slowly become decentralised and actors like media, think tanks, academic institutes/ university and unbidden associations and interest groups constitute major linkages between the government, its mechanism and the governed.22Visit of the Indian External Affairs Minister to China in 1999 marked the recommencement of high-level dialogue. The pin declaration signed during the visit of Indian prize Minister to China in June 2003 stated that China was not a threat to India.23Special representatives were appointed by the China and India in order to provide thrust to border negotiations. India also acknowledged Chinas sovereignty over Tibet and pledged not to allow anti-China political activities in India. On its part, China had acknowledged Indias 1975 annexation of the former monarchy of Sikkim and later rectified official maps to include Sikkim as part of India.24India and China are in the second introduce of exploring the framework of a final package settlement covering all aspects of the India-China boundary dispute, which will be followed by the final stage of word picture and demarcation of boundary.25Convergence of InterestsIndia and China have found substantial lap of interests at the international level wherein they both share similar concerns about(predicate) the growing international dominance of the US, the threat of terrorism disguised as religious and ethnic movements and the need to accord primacy to economic development. Both nations also favour more democratic international economic regimes.26They have strongly resisted efforts by the US and other developed nations to link global heap to labour and environmental standards. China and India put forward a joint Sino-Indian position in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and International wiliness negotiations.Chinas Neutrality Towards Indo- Pak RelationsThere has been a subtle shift in Beijings stance on Pakistan vis--vis India. Chinas neutral position during the Kargil conflict, during Indo-Pak crisis following the terrorist attack on the Indias Parliament and during Mumbai terrorist attack is seen as sincere attempts of Chinas to improve ties. Towards Chinas attempts to project itself as a responsible regional player, it is supporting peace and anti-terrorist efforts in South Asia by cooperating with the India and US. China is also seen to be instrumental in load-bearing(a) Pakistan to negotiate with India by using its linfluence over Pakistan. On, 02 Dec 1996, when Jiang Zemin famously talk over the Pakistani senators to set aside the Kashmir problem and improve their relationship with India, he thereby decisively distanced China from the Kashmir imbroglio.27Bilateral TradeAs India and China have found a distinct convergence of their interests on world stage, they have used it to strengthen their symmetric relations on social, military and economic front. Prime Minister Manmohan Singhs government had made it clear that it favoured closer ties with China and would continue to work towards improving and strengthening bilateral relations with China. Among the most encouraging developments in India-China ties is the rapid increase in bilateral trade. A few years ago, India Inc had a fear of being swamped by Chinese imports, whereas today, it is estimated that the bilateral trade between the two countries will grow by 20 per cent to re ach beyond $60 billion in 2010-11 from the present US $ 50 billion.Political InitiativesChinese postmortem examination Wen Jiabao told Manmohan Singh during the Indian Prime Ministers visit to China in Jan 2008, that there was enough space for China and India and the two leaders re cultivate to promote building of a harmonious world of durable peace and car park prosperity through developing the Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for serenity and Prosperity between the two countries. China and India also cemented a shared out vision for the 21st century by agreeing to raise the annual peck of bilateral trade to $ 60 billion by 2010 and to play role in transforming Asia and the World.In 2009, China and India witnessed frequent high-level interactions. Chinese President Hu Jintao held talks with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the Shanghai Cooperation transcription (SCO) and the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) summits in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Premier Wen Jiaba o interacted with Manmohan Singh at the East Asia Summit in Thailand and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference.28CHINAS PRESENCE IN PAKISTAN NOT A flagellum TO INDIAChina and India know that any conflict would have devastating found on both countries, because of the nuclear threat and thus the ability to co-operate and solve disputes through diplomacy is in the interest of both countries. India is continuing to improve its relations with China on the convergence of interests that the two nations have achieved in recent years. In respect to Indo-Chinese cooperation it is noted that while they are rivals, they are not enemies and that they knew how to work together with common interests in mind which is exemplified by their burgeoning trade relationship and the potential to work together on a number of key issues, such as terrorism, drug trafficking, global trade and climate change.29China is presently busy in Xinjiang region stressful to calm the Uighur separatist movement, it i s trying its best to hold Tibet, the military preventive in Taiwan is now a possibility and war of oral communication with Vietnam has already started. Importantly, Indias relations with China are improving with improved bilateral trade, increased political initiatives and military co-operations.Thus, having studied the Chinese need and strategy for development of its Western region, the importance of Gwadar port and POK for the western region and Chinas energy security concerns, it can be confidently stressed that Chinas presence in Pakistan is not a threat to India but is the economic need of China.